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Hmm. I’ve been discussing E.C.R.E.E. with some other skeptics. I think the major pitfall is that what constitutes “extraordinary” is very subjective. Another thing if you look at Bayesian inference is the marginal probability http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference P(H|E) = P(E|H)*P(H)/P(E) P(H) is called the prior probability. If this is low we would say a hypothesis is extraordinary. P(E | H) is called the conditional probability of seeing the evidence E if the hypothesis H happens to be true. If this is high the evidence is extraordinary P(E) is called the marginal probability of E: the a priori probability of witnessing the new… Read more »
You mean that wasn’t really Bigfoot that I saw at the Wal-Mart yesterday? I thought he had come in to buy some of the tabloids with pictures of him. Next time I’ll ask for his autograph, so I can give you some evidence.
Jim Purdy
Autograph isn’t good enough. I’m going to need his SS # and photo ID as well 🙂