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If I could change the world … I would teach this stuff in the 5th grade!!! Much more useful in life than knowing things like all the state capitols (which I can still recite, not that anyone ever asks).
Another fantastic revisit of basic principles. The experiment is a great example. Thanks!
I’m not so sure the shifting goal posts tactic is an example of confirmation bias, so much as it is evidence of a deliberate attempt at misrepresentation. Confirmation bias generally results in ignoring information that goes counter to one’s (predetermined) beliefs. But moving the goal posts indicates some acknowledgement that valid counter-evidence exists. The topic is changed so as to explain away this acknowledged contradiction to their firmly held belief. I am not sure whether those who engage in this tactic are being deliberately misleading and disingenuous, or if they are so deeply entrenched in their beliefs that they don’t… Read more »
CarbSane, Yes, the whole “shifting the goalpost” phenomena can be difficult to classify. I put it under the category of confirmation bias, because I consider goalpost shifting as a method for creating and supporting a non-falsifiable hypothesis. Goalpost shifting is very similar to the tactic that ESP believers use when confronted with studies that fail to support the existence of ESP. They will state, “The hostile thoughts of the researchers are interfering with ESP transmission, which is why the experiments fail to support ESP.” In other words, they will come up with every sort of ad hoc excuse imaginable as… Read more »
I see, James. I didn’t mean to criticize your work, though.
By the way, I’ve been trying to find a way to have your site alert me when comments are posted on a particular blog/thread that I’m interested in. I wasn’t able to find it. If you indeed don’t have that available, perhaps you’d consider adding such a feature (if possible).
AH
Hey, Alex,
I don’t mind constructive criticism of my work at all. Also, I just added a way for people to subscribe to comments now.
Very cool. Thanks.
Great post. I would add, however, that people also tend NOT to pay attention to detail and in so doing believe something to be true when perhaps it is not true. As an example, in your aspartame example you state, “Proponents of the artificial sweetener aspartame often cite a 1996 study showing a POSSIBLE link between increased brain tumor frequency and aspartame consumption.” You also state, “Aspartame critics cite this as evidence that increased aspartame consumption MAY have caused an increase in brain tumors.” I think the main point is that a certain group of people believe there MAY be… Read more »
I think the main point is that a certain group of people believe there MAY be a POSSIBLE link between aspartame and brain tumors. This does NOT mean there IS a link, only that there could be one. I probably should have worded my statement differently in my article. If you were to do a web search to see what the critics say about aspartame, you would find that they use the 1996 study as evidence of a DEFINITIVE link, and they will claim with certainty that it caused the increase in brain tumors. There is, in fact, a very… Read more »
I changed the wording now to more accurately reflect how aspartame critics actually view the study
“I pointed out that the traditional Okinawans consumed a high carbohydrate diet and did not have high obesity rates.” Furthermore, there is a plethora of scientific research data contradicting the carbohydrate obesity hypothesis.
The confirmation bias is strong in every field study.
This article should be required reading for everyone.
Couple of references that offer detailed expamples and explainations for confirmation bias:
How We Know What Isn’t So by Thomas Gilovich
Why People Believe Weird Things by Michael Shermer
J Hale
Jamie,
Both of those are excellent books! I own them both
Another awesome post, James.
Thanks, Michael! Congrats on your trading progress this year…you’ve been doing really well.